The LA Times reports that the text of the next Security Council Resolution on the disarmament of Iraq is taking shape:
U.S., Britain to Set Deadlines for U.N., Iraq
UNITED NATIONS — The United States and Britain will present a resolution to the Security Council “in the next few working days” authorizing the use of military force to disarm Iraq and imposing a deadline for the council to vote on it, U.S. and British officials said Wednesday.
Key elements include deadlines for Security Council action, and Iraqi full compliance with UNSCR 1441, and as we might expect, Russia, France, and Germany maintain that the “last chance” spelled out in 1441 should go on forever.
I listened to some of the Non-Aligned Nations speaking to the Security Council this week, and there was a lot of equivocation, with most speakers saying “yes, Iraq’s out of compliance,” and “no, we shouldn’t enforce the resolutions yet, 12 years isn’t near enough time.”
But the underlying message, made clear by India, was the fear that warfare will spike crude oil prices, limiting poor nations’ ability to import fuel, and consequent damage to their economies and transportation systems, especially where food is concerned. They aren’t coming on board until something can be done to protect oil markets during the fighting, and their concerns are well-founded in hard experience for them after the Gulf War.
I don’t know that the US and the UK can solve this problem, but they should try to get pledges from oil exporters outside the Mid-East to boost production and hold prices steady if there’s any interruption in oil production from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.