Please forgive me for quoting myself, but on March 23rd I said this:
One fallout of the President’s new dismal approval rating is the certain death of this Social Security reform proposals. But what’s more important, retirement security for all Americans, or a few more gallons of liquid for one person in a persistent vegetative state?
Today a law professor in Tennessee says this:
Perhaps the Republicans think this will all be forgotten by 2006, or at least by 2008. And perhaps they’re counting on the Democrats to remain so feckless on national security that it won’t matter. Perhaps they’ll be right, but they’re certainly suffering short-term declines in the polls that hurt the President’s ability to act right now. I think that if he had a 60% approval rating, or even a 53% approval rating, he’d be making more progress on Social Security reform and on his various nominations. Was it worth this damage to solidify the social-conservative base? They seem to think so, but I’m not so sure.
It takes 18 days for Mossback’s observations to hit the New York Times, but 35 days for them to hit Instapundit. That’s not so “instant”, is it? But I digress. Jeff Jarvis is on the story as well. This being a hot topic, perhaps I should clarify it.
Bush is basically a moderate, centrist politician who attracts votes from the religious right by paying lip-service to their values issues without doing anything substantial for them. So he wins elections by combining the right’s votes with those of the moderate majority who actually like his policy positions. So moderates support Bush on a policy basis knowing the courts will prevent the religious right from getting anything. With his outrageous pandering on Schiavo and the pending nuclear option on judges, Bush support doesn’t look risk-free to moderates any more, and the religious right are waking up to the fact that they haven’t really got anything out of his presidency. So the carefully cobbled-together coalition of different interests can just as easily go against him as for him, and right now they’re against him. This is the problem with having it both ways – you can lose it both ways too.
So all that leaves for Bush is the people who support him because he’s a likable guy, even if he does hold hands with autocrats. Not a large group.
There’s no going back for Bush, because he can only win the moderates back by alienating the religious people, and vice versa. So we’re going to see a caretaker presidency for the next three years, nothing more.
It’s over for the Bush coalition.
UPDATE: Young Andy Sullivan notes the professor’s concerns, and muddles them up with his own issues. Sullivan has been a real piece of work lately, bashing the Catholic Church for its opposition to homosexual sodomy, but also bashing it for its coverup of, well, homosexual sodomy between priests and altar boys. He doesn’t see the connection, of course.