— Amidst the hostility toward President Bush for either being too hard on the Israelis for their incursion into the occupied territories (or too easy, depending on who you believe), the debate over Arafat’s exceptionalism among Palestinian leaders, and the general horror incited by suicide bombers, it’s easy to lose focus on Israel’s long-term prospects, … Continue reading “Israel is going to lose”
— Amidst the hostility toward President Bush for either being too hard on the Israelis for their incursion into the occupied territories (or too easy, depending on who you believe), the debate over Arafat’s exceptionalism among Palestinian leaders, and the general horror incited by suicide bombers, it’s easy to lose focus on Israel’s long-term prospects, which aren’t good. Israel is, after all, a small country, with only six million people living shoulder-to-shoulder with hundreds of millions of hostile neighbors. While Israel is technically advanced, the suicide bomb is a weapon of mass destruction against which it’s completely powerless. If present trends continue, suicide bombing alone will lead to the end of the state of Israel in a few short years.
It’s the recognition of this that lead Sharon to make such a disproportionate response, trashing houses, killing innocent civilians, cutting Palestinians off from hospital visits, surrounding Arafat, and the rest of it. He’s desperate because he knows it’s only a matter of time until the suicide bombing makes life in Israel so unbearable that Israelis emigrate en masse to more peaceful climes. And it’s all happened before, in the first diaspora that left Palestine without a Jewish population in 1948 when the modern state of Israel was created:
The Jewish Diaspora and Israel: After the Jewish revolts against the Roman occupation (66-135 CE), Jews are banned from living in Jerusalem and Judea. Under Byzantine rule (324-640 CE), Christianity is introduced in Israel and many anti-Jewish laws are enacted. By the 6th century, Jews have become a minority in their own land. After the Arab conquest, the Jewish population declines further. At the time of the first crusades (11th century), only a few thousand Jews remain in Israel.
This is the scenario that those of us who support Israel don’t want to acknowledge. It makes us uncomfortable for the same reasons that suicide cults like the People’s Temple and Heaven’s Gate and military suicides like the Kamikaze make us uncomfortable. We’re individualists, and we mistakenly assume that everybody else in the world is too, despite mountains of evidence to the contrary. Not that we’re all that sincere in our individualism, which generally manifests in our young people in forms of rebellion narrowly selected from MTV and the Ralph Lauren catalog; our deepest desire is to belong to a group, and while we act on that impulse while speaking the rhetoric of the self, the rest of the world isn’t at all conflicted about sacrificing the self for the sake of the community. The supply of potential suicide bombers in the Arab world alone is practically boundless; it certainly wouldn’t take more than a few thousand to bring about the end of Israel as we know it.
Perhaps the situation in the Middle East isn’t completely hopeless (I certainly hope it’s not, for America’s sake if for no other reason,) but unless there’s a major shift in attitudes on both sides of the River Jordan, Israel has no future. Do the math.