Month: November 2002

Here’s a link to the whole deal, with all the whereases and therefores: ‘Iraq Has Been and Remains in Material Breach’ (washingtonpost.com)

One outcome in Tuesday’s election that deserves notice is the Republican pickup of Assembly seats:

Democrats easily retained the balance of power Tuesday in the California Legislature, but Republicans dealt a blow to the leadership of Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson by gaining two seats in the lower house — and potentially a third.

It may not seem like much, but recall that Assembly districts were recently redrawn with the goal of preserving the 50/30 split by protecting incumbent parties. So picking up two or three seats means Republicans successfully bucked the trend, and overcame fund-raising advantages to do so. These districts are severely Gerrymandered, and one Republican winner – Dublin mayor Guy Houston – had to move because the district was drawn specifically with excluding him in mind. He succeeds Lynne Leach, also a Republican, representing the Tri- Valley area of the East Bay.

Half-a-million absentees remain to be counted statewide, which means Tom McClintock will probably emerge victorious over E-Bay hack Steve Westly, and Dem Rusty Areias is in big trouble in his state Senate race.

Now that Gephardt has has announced he’s stepping down, Martin Frost and Nancy Pelosi are in a dog fight to see who succeeds the old boy (Report: Gephardt Won’t Seek a New Term)

“The country moved to the right yesterday and House Democrats won’t win a majority by moving further to the left,” said Tom Eisenhauer, spokesman for Frost, attempting to depict Pelosi as too liberal to lead the party back into power.

But Nancy says it’s a matter of principle to send a message while losing. She sounds like a Bill Simon supporter.

Isn’t it interesting that the Senate elections came down to Georgia, Missouri, and Minnesota, states where Dems appealed to the sympathy factor (some would say “pity”) in an attempt to elect candidates not well-qualified for the job, only to be beaten by Republicans who displayed mastery of the issues, quick wits, and tons of (recent) experience in public office? The selection of these candidates had more to do with the outcome of the election than any issue, I believe.

Background: Cleland in Georgia is one-term Senator with one arm and no legs, who comes across as a drooling idiot. Carnahan is the widow of the former governor, and has never been elected to any office at any time. Mondale was once a politician, but that was 20 years ago and he’s lost a lot of speed sitting on the sidelines.

The Corner has an interesting stat that explains a lot about this election:

The National Organization for Women won three of the 18 races in which they endorsed candidates (courtesy of The Hotline).

The old-line feminist groups like NOW have been on the ropes since 9/11, and this confirms that the people just aren’t buying the idea that it’s always the man’s fault any more. NOW standard-bearer Connie Morella was rejected after 8 terms in House, for example. Hate just doesn’t cut it any more.

Looks like my predictions weren’t too bad: I called 8 out of 10 Senate races correctly, only missing NH and Minnesoda. I was right about Arnie’s initiative, right in principle on McClintock, and dead on that the Reeps would gain two seats in the Assembly. Not too bad for a programmer.

The Sacramento Bee — sacbee.com — Analysis: It was political suicide, with an assist

One way of looking at it, says pollster Mark DiCamillo, is that one candidate was bent on character assassination while the other seemed determined to commit political suicide.

Not just the candidate was bent on suicide, but the party that nominated him.

The Argus-Leader gives SD to Johnson:

A mere 528 votes helped Sen. Tim Johnson hold his seat against a challenge from Rep. John Thune in a brutally close race where the final ballots were not tallied until after 9 a.m. today. The closeness of the vote makes a recount likely, and state officials said that would be held on Nov. 25.

Machine breakdowns and late votes from Indian reservattions make the recount more than routine.

CNN.com has called Minnesoda for Coleman, with 86% of precincts reporting:

Coleman 881,240 50%

Mondale 828,885 47%

The WaPo also calls Minnesoda for Coleman.

South Dakota is still too close to call, but Thune leads with 99% counted, so the question is who’s going to be first to call it? Will it be AP, CNN, Fox, WaPo, or MSNBC? Here’s a local link from the Sioux Falls paper.

So how is it that the Republicans managed to win back the Senate, but lose so many governorships? The Libertarians had an awful lot to do with it, siphoning off more votes than the margin of victory in four states won by Democrats, according to lefty weirdo Stirling Newberry:

In Alabama, the difference between Siegelman, Democrat, and Riley, GOP, is 3000 votes. The Libertarian picked up 23,242.

In Wisconson, Doyle, the Democrat, took 45% of the vote, the Republican incumbent took 41% – and the Libertarian took 10%.

Anti-tax candidate Richardson, running as an independent, cost Steve Largent the Governorship in Oklahoma – taking 146,000 votes – when the two major parties were separated by just under 7,000.

In Oregon, we have Ted Kulongoski, Dem 473,424 (48%) Kevin Mannix, GOP 466,778 (47%) Tom Cox, Lib 45,117 (5%)

And two near misses:

In Arizona, Hess, the Libertarian ran 4th with 16,518 votes – while th difference between the two main parties stands at: 17,600.

In Wyoming, the Democrat holds a lead of 5,800 votes. The Libertarian took 3,699.

…which just goes to reinforce the fact that the Libertarian Party is the most destructive force in American politics.