It’s reasonably certain that we’re going to have a recall election on Gov. Gray Davis, and one of the two serious questions about it is whether it comes in November as a special election or in March as part of the presidential primary. Issa wants it this year, so he can run without stepping down from his Congressional seat, and Ted Costa wants it in March so as not to burden the taxpayers with additional costs, but mainly to screw Issa, who’s not conservative enough for him. Costa’s rumored to be sitting on 100,000 sigantures already, and we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out.
The other question concerns who’s going to take Davis’ place, especially interesting because the plurality format of the election of a governor to follow the recall means anything can happen. You don’t need a majority to win the election to fill the recalled governor’s seat, and there are no run-offs, it’s simply who gets the greatest number of votes.
This is prompting a lot of jockeying for position among various hopefuls:
While Issa clearly wants to run if the recall makes the ballot (voters would decide on a successor at the same election in which they decide Davis’ fate), he probably would not be alone. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, state Sen. Tom McClintock and Bill Simon, whom Davis defeated last year, are among Republicans weighing a run. Private polls give an early edge to Simon, due to his high name identity.
Several Democrats who had hoped to run for governor in 2006, meanwhile, must decide whether to figuratively thumb their noses at Davis and run if the recall qualifies. Attorney General Bill Lockyer, Treasurer Phil Angelides, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and Controller Steve Westly are being forced to think about it as the recall drive picks up steam. Some Democrats believe that U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein would be the perfect alternative. There also are suspicions among Davis aides that Senate President Pro Tem John Burton harbors ambitions himself and may be aiding the recall by bucking Davis on several key budget issues.
The party that can exert the greater discipline by running the least candidates has a natural advantage, and that’s usually the Republicans. But this is California, where self-immolation is the Republican Party’s stock-in-trade, so anything can happen, even the election of crazy John Burton as governor.
Press conferences would certainly be livelier if Burton’s elected; he generally cusses a blue streak when he’s the least agitated, which is most of the time. He’d also pardon and parole dozens of prisoners who Davis wouldn’t even think about, and do whatever the Gov. can do to commute death sentences. His judicial nominees would be truly scary, and so would his budget priorities. He’d try and jigger the tax code so only Republicans paid taxes, and he’d wreck Silicon Valley.
While I like John personally, if he becomes governor, I’d have to leave the state.