What really happens in California

According to the Secretary of State’s Report of Registration, California voters are a diverse bunch: 44.4% are registered Democrats, 35.2% are Republicans, 4.4% belong to third parties, and 14.4% are “Decline to State” or independent voters. Democrats lead in 26 counties, and Republicans in 35.

The trends, since the February 10, 2001 Report of Registration:

the percentage of total registration in the state has decreased from 72.2% to 70.3%

registration in the qualified political parties has decreased from 84.7% to 83.5%

registration in the Democratic party decreased from 45.6% to 44.4%

registration in the Republican party increased from 34.8% to 35.2%

the number of voters who have declined to state has increased from 14.4% to 15.3%

Bear these figures in mind when you read my colleague Grant, who says:

First, republicans only make up roughly 20% of California’s residence. Of course, that number improves if we only count the likely voters. That means that roughly half of California democrats would need to vote for President Bush if he were to win the state. That is the primary reason I don’t think he will win California.

Not quite right, is it?

Now what things affect election results, beyond party registration? At least three major factors: 1) turnout; 2) crossovers; and 3) coattails. I think all of these favor George W. Bush in California.

Democrats are unlikely to nominate a candidate who really gets their party faithful all fired-up to go out and vote, because they don’t have one among the largely shapeless and nameless bunch in the running. Would you get out of bed 30 minutes early to vote for Bob Graham, John Kerry, or Dick Gephardt? Neither would most Democrats. Dean, Kucinich, and Sharpton seem to get people more excited, but it’s not clear any of them has a genuine shot at winning the nomination, although Dean has Kerry worried. So barring Hillary!, Dems will have low turnout in 2004.

Crossovers, meaning voters defecting from their party and voting for the other guy, favor Bush for a couple of reasons. Disaffected Reeps tend to bolt when the candidate isn’t fanatical enough about abortion or religion, but nobody’s going to dump Bush for Kerry or Dean on that basis. Disaffected Dems bolt from candidates who’re too soft on crime, too namby-pamby on national defense, and too generous with the welfare checks. And voters of all parties, especially women, bolt to re-elect an incumbent. George H. W. Bush got more California women in 1992 than Clinton did, for example. So crossovers favor the President.

Which brings us to coattails, meaning voters to come out to vote the Party ticket because they’re psyched-up by somebody else on the ballot. This doesn’t happen in California with Legislative or Congressional races, because the districts are so Gerrymandered that the November results are always a foregone conclusion; the primary is where the action is. The Governor’s race may get some people excited, except that the recall, if successful, will tend to make it simply a re-election of whoever takes Davis’ place in the corner office.

And the wild card is the Decline-to-State voter, the fastest growing segment of the voting population that makes a difference (third parties are actually growing faster, but they self-marginalize and therefore aren’t interesting). Since neither of the major parties has a majority of registered voters, they both live and die by the Independent vote, at the end of the day, and right now, that’s in Bush’s favor.

So I wouldn’t write off the state of California just yet, Republicans.