There’s some interesting commentary on the Iowa Caucus at Matt Welch, Jeff Jarvis, Josh Marshall, Michael J. Totten, and Roger L. Simon’s blogs. Several of them are quoting Bill Schneider, the CNN analyst who said the wheels started coming off the Deaniac Movement when Saddam was captured, and Marshall, DLC tool that he is, is denying it, which further underscores the truthfulness of it. I think the dynamic is something like this: when Saddam was captured, and then Qaddafi capitulated, as did Iran, and then Syria, it became clear that the Bush Administration’s Middle East policy — AKA, “war” — is working. Consequently, Democrats can’t gain any traction by criticizing it (except around the edges), and they can’t gain any traction by supporting it, since it’s Bush’s signature policy. So the only way for Democrats to stay happy is to change the subject.
Kerry and Edwards have done that, by adopting heavily nuanced positions on the war but talking mainly on other issues, such as health care, the economy, special interests, oil companies, and anything but the war. Polling in Iowa says the number one and two issues with Democrats were the economy and health care, followed by education, with the war in Iraq way down the list and of primary importance to only about 14%. Now if you take away the war, Dean hasn’t got a single issue to run on where’s he’s got a comfortably consistent position – he’s already been all over the map on health care, has no experience managing an economy that’s not about tourists, weekenders, and selling ice cream to stoned hippies, and he’s flip-flopped on gun control and trade.
So when the war rhetoric dies down, you see that Dean’s an utterly shameless opportunist who’s willing to say or do anything to avoid having to go back to work as a country doctor. It’s sad that his campaign will soon be history, because I’d like nothing better than to see more of the antics Dean pulled at his non-concession speech where he screamed the names of the twelve states he can remember before doing some kinda New Englander’s imitation of a Rebel Yell. Despite being a clinical example of delusion and dementia (OK, because of it) his exhibition was the most entertaining TV of the night.
Kerry and Edwards will run a professional, is somewhat boring campaign against Bush and Cheney, but before that starts we do have at least a few weeks of Dean off his meds, Clark’s wacky conspiracy theories, Kucinich’s space alien fixations and Sharpton’s street hustling. Electoral politics is Reality TV at its finest, and we watch because we take joy in the suffering of others.