The conventional wisdom was that organization wins in Iowa, but we learned last night that pure campaigning, both message and style, also count for a lot. Nonetheless, an Iowa organization helps, so to understand who won and why you have to factor organization out of the count. When you do that, Edwards rather than Kerry emerges as the winner. Blogger Adam Sullivan nails the dynamic that pushed Edwards over the top:
Only one seems to have learned from Arnold Schwarzenegger – sell positively to the center, and a crowded field of polemicists will poison itself.
That’s right, it was the Arnie factor. Kerry, Clark, and Dean are too stiff to pull off this kind of campaigning, so they’re at distinct disadvantage as the primaries roll along. Unlike Sullivan, I’m not ready to forecast Edwards as the eventual victor because I don’t think he’s got enough substance behind the smile, but he’ll make a nice running mate for Kerry.
Arnie-style campaigning only really works when you don’t have enough time to get to know the candidate, so Edwards will be pushing his sell-by date in early March when the primaries are finally decided. He’s clearly the kind of guy that voters like less as they get to know him better — the only reason he’s running for President is because he can’t get re-elected to the Senate from North Carolina. But he’s going to make a close run of an otherwise dismally boring campaign.
Via Roger L. Simon