The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll is super-bad news for Kerry:
Kerry has lost support against Bush in trust to handle five of six issues tested in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, including terrorism, Iraq, taxes and even health care. And Kerry’s ratings on personal attributes ? honesty, strong leadership, consistency, empathy and others ? have softened as well.
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Probably the single most important advance for Bush on the issues in this poll is his rating for handling terrorism. Fifty-seven percent of Americans now approve, up from 50 percent last month. And registered voters trust Bush over Kerry to handle terrorism by 55 percent to 37 percent, compared with an even split, 48 percent to 47 percent, a month ago.
Among specific groups that are key to Kerry’s chances, since June he has lost 13 points among women in trust to handle terrorism, 11 points among moderates and eight points among independents.
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There’s a significant gender gap in this race: Kerry has an 11-point lead over Bush among women, while Bush is +15 among men. Bush’s support has gained a bit among men in the past month, while women’s preferences remained about the same.
So instead of some pre-convention bounce, we see Kerry’s support eroding significantly; as we approach the election, Iraq will get significantly better, the economy will continue to improve, and the sanctimoniousness of Democratic Party all-stars Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton will alienate voters even further.
Things are looking pretty good for Mr. Bush.