The downside of the California recall is that I’ve lost all confidence in the national political pundits, all of whom are positioning themselves as experts on California politics. Granted, the dynamics of the recall are voter revolt, so the traditional alliances aren’t all that important, but it seems to me that the pundocracy should at … Continue reading “Everybody’s an expert”
The downside of the California recall is that I’ve lost all confidence in the national political pundits, all of whom are positioning themselves as experts on California politics. Granted, the dynamics of the recall are voter revolt, so the traditional alliances aren’t all that important, but it seems to me that the pundocracy should at least endeavor to learn the basics. So in the interest of universal consciousness-raising, here are a few basic facts.
Democratic Party politics are dictated in this state by two large machines and two small ones. The Willie Brown/John Burton machine, actually started by John’s now-deceased elder brother Phillip, rules the Frisco Bay area, and the Howard Berman/Henry Waxman West LA machine rules the south. Phillip Burton was the master of gerrymandering, and he engineered the scenario that ensures Democratic control of the legislature and the dominance of Frisco over LA thirty years ago. There are two smaller but increasingly important Latino machines, one run by Gloria Molina in LA, and the other by Chuck Calderon and Richard Polanco. The Calderon/Polanco machine is more pro-business and moderate, and less “Latino pride” and feminist than the Molina machine. There’s a lot of bad blood between the two Latino machines.
Davis isn’t enmeshed in any of the machines (although he’s closest to Calderon), and that’s the main reason he’s vulnerable. Nobody in the Democratic Party benefits from his surviving the recall, and he doesn’t have any personal connections that could help him survive it. The Dems are strictly looking at this contest as it relates to their own ambitions for 2006 and beyond.
There is really only one Republican machine, controlled by Pete Wilson and some buddies from San Diego and Orange County. Religious right zealots crop up from time to time, but they’re not organized and they generally don’t have a lasting impact. The majority of California Republicans are idiots who see elections as a chance to make personal statements, not as a strategic opportunity to govern. They have a death wish, in other words, and they’re their own worst enemies. The Simon and McClintock camps will snipe at Schwarzenegger so much that Bustamante will probably win the replacement elections.
The local pundits who know the most about what goes on are Dan Walters (Sacramento Bee), Jack Kavanaugh (rtumble.com) , Jill Stewart, Greg Lucas and Robert Salladay (Frisco Chronicle) and the folks at the San Diego Union Trib. The political reporters for the LA Times, the Contra Costa Times, the OC Register, and the San Jose Mercury News are all partisan hacks with little or no actual insight; the “lazy sheep” Jill Stewart talks about. The recall has been a bonanza for LA pundits Mickey Kaus and the Reason Magazine crowd, not all of whom are crypto-Nazi twits like Jesse Walker and Tim Cavanaugh – Matt Welch and Cathy Young write for Reason, too.
The main special interests that own the politicos are the Prison Guards’ union (CCPOA), the teachers’ union (CTA), the casino-owning Indians, the trial lawyers, and the insurance companies. The CCPOA is bi-partisan, supporting the winning horse as much as possible: they were pro-Pete Wilson and pro-Gray Davis, because of Three Strikes and promised high salaries. The trial lawyers and the insurance companies are behind a lot of what happens in Sacramento. Another important special interest is the Hollywood/gay rights/anti-male/radical feminist group run by Sheila Kuehl and her buddies at the Feminist Majority Fund. Their main agenda isn’t gay rights as much as it is raping men in divorce, a very popular cause in this state.
The Repubs can either use this election to reincarnate their party into relevance, or to finish it off altogether. If the Republican Party is to have a future here, it has to be recast from the Pat Robertson mold into the image of the Silicon Valley Republican (AKA “RINO”) embodied by Tom Campbell, Richard Riordan, and Arnie: that’s libertarian on social issues, pro-choice, tough on crime, strong on education, and tight on taxes. Pete Wilson understands this, and if the California Reeps can turn this corner, they could start a movement that goes nationwide. In his day, Reagan was socially liberal: he signed the first no-fault divorce law in the nation, after all. Today it means live-and-let-live with gays and legal immigrants, hands-off abortion, and some sort of wimpy gun control. So the future of the Republic rides on this wacky recall, after all.
So there are your basics, thanks for your attention, and use the information wisely.
